Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia

摘要: Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in world. Its complex seismicity due to collision Eurasian and Indian plates has resulted some world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region dominated by reverse faulting strike slip normal events. GSHAP project (1999), aiming at a hazard assessment on global scale, indicated that characterized peak ground accelerations for 10% probability exceedance 50 years as high 9 m/s 2 . In this study, carried out within framework EMCA (Earthquake Model Asia), area source model different kernel approaches are used probabilistic seismic (PSHA) Asia. assessed considering shallow (depth < km) only employs an updated (with respect previous projects) earthquake catalog region. calculated terms macroseismic intensity (MSK-64), intended be risk maps maps, shown years, derived using OpenQuake software [Pagani et al. 2014], which open tool developed GEM (Global Earthquake Model) foundation. maximum observed reaches around 8 southern Tien Shan 475 mean return period. estimated cities region, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Tashkent Almaty, between 7 (7-8), 8.0, 7.0 8.0 Intensity, respectively, period, approaches. results methods assessing level compared their underlying methodologies discussed.