Spatial variation of heat-related morbidity: A hierarchical Bayesian analysis in multiple districts of the Mekong Delta Region

摘要: Abstract This study examined spatial variability of heat-related morbidity in multiple districts the Mekong Delta Region (MDR), Vietnam. It was conducted 132 district/cities MDR. We used a series hierarchical Bayesian models to examine region-wide and district-specific association between temperatures hospitalizations during period 2010–2013. The potential effects seasonality, long-term trends, day week holidays were controlled models. also influences socio-demographic factors on temperature-hospitalization relationship. results indicate that an increase 5 °C average temperature associated with 6.1% (95%CI: 5.9, 6.2) hospital admissions. However, district-level risks ranged from 55.2% decrease {95%CI: (−54), (−56)} 24.4% (24.3–24.6) admissions per temperature. reflects heterogeneous magnitudes risk across districts. increased by 1.3% 1.2–1.4), for each 1000 persons/km2 population density, 2.1% 2.04–2.11) 1% percent females, 2.7% 2.6–2.8) pre-school students. In contrast, temperature-related hospitalization decreased up 6.8% {(95%CI: (−6.6)–(−6.9)} rural population. Public health intervention measures both short-term should be developed consideration use city/district scale rather than province scale. does not accurately represent due exposure high temperatures.