Serial dependence structure of Chinese outbound tourism demand and its contribution to forecasting

摘要: This working paper analyses the serial dependence structures of Chinese outbound tourism (COT) and its contribution to COT demand forecasting. Our research provides a flexible tool, namely copula method, advance knowledge structure in increase forecasting accuracy. Previous usually employs models with predetermined structure, mainly linear imposes certain distribution assumption, normal distribution, on demand. In contrast, method possesses greater flexibility as it numerous functions account for allows arbitrary distributions empirical findings reveal that can be used specify various different destinations performances better than ARIMA Besides methodological contributions, our study has marketing implication.