Towards a low carbon transition of urban public transport in megacities: A case study of Shenzhen, China

摘要: Abstract The urgent need to develop low carbon urban transport systems particularly in Asian megacities is facing the significant challenge of growing motorization following population increase and economic development. Sustainable public (UPT) plays a crucial role fulfil ambitious targets on emission reduction. In this study, life cycle assessment was employed quantify environmental impacts (measured by emissions) UPT (including bus subway) Shenzhen, leading megacity South China, then examine corresponding intensity reduction potentials. Results showed that total emissions from Shenzhen have increased rapidly 0.70 Mt 2005 1.74 Mt 2015 due fast growth volume turnover. However, current low-carbon mode has only reduced 0.21 Mt CO2 e (cumulative value, 2015), thus could not contribute proportionally city’s overall target. Three advanced scenarios (from conservative optimistic) were further simulated estimate their potentials over next 15 years (2016–2030). Compared business-as-usual scenario, all these three transition significantly mitigate rapid consequently help achieve Shenzhen’s goal 2030 (60%, compared level). These findings inform evidence-based policy making facilitate sector but also shed light sustainable other megacities.