Evaluating predictability based on gate-in fuel prediction and cost-to-carry estimation

摘要: Abstract Predictability in the aviation system affects costs to airlines and passengers. We propose a predictability metric based on flight's gate-in fuel (GIF) which can be directly measured monetized by stakeholders. estimate GIF for six major U.S. airlines. Since data are not available, we develop an estimation methodology obtain from pushback weight burn, including conversion passenger payload econometric model. The accounts aircraft operating empty payload. find that varies across time of year, is highest during summer period. monetize through cost-to-carry analysis as extra loading results additional burn. Our estimates reveal that, 2012, spent $59 million $667 carrying GIF, with total all $1.46 billion.