Predicting River Macroinvertebrate Communities Distributional Shifts under Future Global Change Scenarios in the Spanish Mediterranean Area.

摘要: Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is predominant environmental driver thermal and flow regimes freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology behaviour as well biotic interactions aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, composition dynamics communities. These effects are expected be especially severe Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, with restricted distributions narrow ecological requirements, such those living headwaters rivers, will severely affected. The study area corresponds Spanish Balearic Islands, delimited by Koppen boundary. With application MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System) predictive approach, macroinvertebrate community was predicted current conditions compared three posible scenarios watertemperature increase associated reductions. results indicate communities undergo a drastic impact, reductions taxa richness each scenario relation simulated accompanied pattern. Accordingly, most (65.96%) inhabiting mid-high elevations contract rise altitude. families containing great number generalist move upstream colonize new zones lower temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable area.