Extreme value theory for precipitation: sensitivity analysis for climate change

摘要: Abstract Extreme value theory for the maximum of a time series daily precipitation amount is described. A chain-dependent process assumed as stochastic model precipitation, with intensity distribution being gamma. To examine how effective return period extreme high amounts would change parameters (i.e., probability wet day, shape and scale gamma distribution), sensitivity analysis performed. This guided by some results from statistical downscaling that relate patterns in large-scale atmospheric circulation to local providing physically plausible range changes parameters. For particular location considered example, most sensitive parameter distribution.