On the level of skill in predicting maximum sunspot number - A comparative study of single variate and bivariate precursor techniques

摘要: Precursor prediction techniques have generally performed well in predicting the maximum amplitude of sunspot cycles, based on cycles 10–21. Single variate methods minimum reliably predicted size cycle 9 out 12 times, where a reliable is defined as one having an observed within interval (determined from average error). On other hand, single geomagnetic 8 10 times (geomagnetic data are only available since about 12). Bivariate have, thus far, flawlessly, giving predictions (bivariate and data). For 22, (based data) suggest 170 ± 25, while bivariate 140 15; thus, both that 22 will be smaller than during 19, possibly even for 21. Compared to mean cycle, presently behaving if it + 2.6σ (maximum 225). It appears then either first not by combined precursor (i.e., anomaly, statistical outlier) or deviation relative substantially decrease over next 18 months. Because large smoothed number expected occur early 1990 (between December 1989 May 1990).