The epidemiologic transition theory revisited thirty years later.

摘要: The Epidemiologic Transition Theory is based on the systematic application of epidemiologic inference to changing health mortality survival and fertility over time place linked their socioeconomic environmental lifestyle demographic care technological determinants and/or correlates in different societal settings. Surely profound epidemiological changes have been taking world last several centuries albeit at a varying pace take-off populations. This essay revisits original 1971 presentation moving from three-stage/three-model formulation five stage/five-model formulation. In particular relative role experience transition dynamics discussed under Proposition 1 while stages are described 2. Moreover kinds inequities noted during captured 3. models characterizing timing subsequent country groups 4. paper concludes with look possible scenario fifth stage beyond.