Simulating spatial pattern of urban growth using GIS-based SLEUTH model: a case study of eastern corridor of Tehran metropolitan region, Iran

摘要: Tehran metropolitan region (TMR) has experienced rapid urbanization in the last few decades. This accelerating trend mainly arising from high natural population growth and rural–urban migration along with socioeconomic changes formed unplanned uncontrolled urban expansion peri-urban areas resulted degrading environmental quality considerable landscapes of TMR. Thus, main objective this research is to model spatial pattern eastern corridor TMR using GIS-based SLEUTH prediction future developments 2014 2060. The one most powerful models for modeling. analyzes based on historical data obtained satellite images 1987, 2003, 2011, 2014. results indicate that important factors affecting are slope resistance road gravity. highest coefficients value, which illustrates limiting influence slopes general gravity stands second place where it displaces orientation linear form outlying alongside transportation network; represents have a nature edge due road-influenced growth, while spread, diffusion, breed display low probability new spreading center spontaneous study area. In addition, 2020–2060 revealed was 41,500 ha will increase 179,400 ha 2060 noticeable rate 145.6 %. Comparing area other researches happens corridor. One reasons goes back formation homes residents city.