Projected Effects of Climate Change on Patterns of Vertebrate and Tree Species Richness in the Conterminous United States

摘要: General circulation models (GCM) predict that increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases will lead to dramatic changes in climate. It is known the spatial variability species richness over continental scales strongly correlated with contemporary Assuming this relationship between climate persists under conditions increased CO2, what could we expect occur terms richness? To address question, I used observed relationships climate, coupled projections from five GCM, project these future changes. These vertebrate ectotherms increase most conterminous United States. Mammal bird are predicted decrease much southern US cool, mountainous areas. Woody plant likely throughout North West southwestern deserts. represent long time (millennia); short-term expected be mainly negative.