Individual and Population-Level Impacts of an Emerging Poxvirus Disease in a Wild Population of Great Tits

摘要: Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife can have severe effects on host populations and constitute a pressing problem for biodiversity conservation. Paridae pox is an unusually form avipoxvirus infection that has recently been identified as emerging disease particularly affecting abundant songbird, the great tit (Parus major), in Great Britain. In this study, we study invasion establishment long-term monitored population wild tits to (i) quantify impact novel pathogen fitness (ii) determine potential threat it poses persistence. We show significantly reduces reproductive output by reducing ability parents fledge young successfully rear those independence. Our results also suggested transmission from diseased their offspring was possible, entails mortality costs affected chicks. Application multistate mark-recapture modelling showed causes significant reductions survival, with large observed juvenile survival. Using age-structured model, demonstrate reduce growth rate, primarily through negative impacts survival rates. However, at currently prevalence, disease-induced decline seems unlikely, although prevalence may be underestimated if capture probability individuals low. Despite this, because pox-affected model exhibited lower average rates, resilience other environmental factors size.