An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

摘要: The benefits of the Department Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market policy conditions. In recognition insurance value R&D, however, Office Energy Efficiency Renewable (EERE) Fossil (FE) exploring options for evaluating their R&D programs an array alternative futures. More specifically, FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Group) has proposed to EERE FE staff application initial set three scenarios use in Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) High Fuel Price which includes heightened natural gas oil prices, (3) Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. immediate goal is these conduct pilot analysis efforts. this report, two being considered by staff--carbon cap-and-trade high fuel prices--are compared other used energy analysts utility planners. report also briefly evaluates past accuracy fossil price forecasts. We find that prices through 2025 inmore » Scenario appear be reasonable based on current externally generated forecasts scenarios. If anything, even more extreme scenario might considered. escalation from 2050 within harder evaluate, primarily because few existing or extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it appears reasonable. Similarly, we originally reasonable, if not conservative, on: forward oil, forecasts, (4) historical difficulty accurately forecasting prices. Overall, spread between Oil well over $8/bbl supported literature. conclude wide range carbon regulation are possible, especially time frame (through 2050). found less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets analyzed, similar magnitude Climate Stewardship Act. some literature, ignores banking offsets does allow nuclear power expand. therefore somewhat concerned stringency 2010 period will lead particularly cost reduction. As described detail later, encourage flexibility ultimate implementation identifying additional future analyses, describing concern with specification highlighting possible implementing modeling tools.« less