Near-future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States.

摘要: Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about potential for forest mortality to impact structure, ecosystem services, economic vitality of communities coming decades. We used Community Land Model (CLM) determine vulnerability from drought fire by year 2049. modified CLM represent 13 major types ran simulations at a 4-km grid resolution, driven with climate projections two general circulation models under one emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). developed metrics short-term extreme based on annual allocation stem growth net primary productivity. calculated changes simulated future area burned relative historical burned. Simulated was medium high areas observations recent drought-related mortality. Comparisons observed indicate could be underestimated 3% Sierra Nevada overestimated Rocky Mountains. Projections show that water-limited forests Mountains, Southwest, Great Basin regions will most vulnerable mortality, highest portions High carbon-density Pacific coast Cascades are projected least either or fire. Importantly, differences lead only 1% domain conflicting low no vulnerability. Our incorporated as probabilistic rates earth system models, enabling more robust estimates feedbacks between land atmosphere over 21st century.