Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk

摘要: Arising from: C. D. Thomas et al. Nature 427, 145–148 (2004); see also communication from Buckley & Roughgarden and Harte al.;Thomas reply al.1 model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios use novel application the species–area relationship estimate that 15–37% modelled species in various regions world will be committed extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge efforts they make measure uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species' dispersal abilities z values (predictions ranged 5.6% 78.6% extinctions), find two additional sources uncertainty may substantially increase variability predictions.