Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate
作者： A H Butler , J S Daniel , R W Portmann , A R Ravishankara , P J Young
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064017
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摘要: Due to the success of Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions ozone-depleting substances, concentrations atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control evolution total column stratospheric ozone by latter half 21st century. As world proceeds down path reducing climate forcing set forth 2015 Conference Parties United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range changes are possible depending future policies enacted. While decreases tropical likely persist regardless scenario, extratropical could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The layer's dependence these gases creates complex policy decision space protecting humans ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting oxide order maintain surface UV levels.
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