What Matters Most in Transportation Demand Model Specifications: A Comparison of Outputs in a Mid-size Network

摘要: This paper examines the impact of travel demand modeling (TDM) disaggregation techniques in context medium-sized communities. Specific TDM improvement strategies are evaluated for predictive power and flexibility with case studies based on Tyler, Texas, network. Results suggest that adding time-of-day disaggregation, particularly conjunction multi-class assignment, to a basic framework has most significant impacts outputs. Other shown outputs include logit mode choice model incorporating congestion feedback loop. For resource-constrained communities, these results show how output vary different settings scenarios.BACKGROUND Transportation directly provides mobility people goods, while influencing land use patterns economic activity, which turn affect air quality, social equity, investment decisions. Driven by need forecast future transportation system performance, Manheim (1979) Florian et al. (1988) introduced analysis traffic forecasting using aggregated data provide basis what is known as four-step model: process involving trip generation, then distribution choice, followed route choice. Aggregating demographic at zone level, generates productions socioeconomic (e.g., household counts income size) attractions primarily jobs counts. The proportionally distributes trips between each origin destination (OD) pair competing impedances, under assumption OD pairings higher costs draw fewer trips. Trips split among variety modes, allocating private vehicle, transit, or other