The Origins of Electoral Authoritarianism and Democracy

摘要: Autocracies with multiparty elections have spread across the globe, but we know little about what predicts transitions to electoral authoritarianism (EA). To fill this gap, I use multinomial logit models simultaneously predict EA and democracy from non-electoral autocracy between 1946 2007. Because autocrats usually retain power under EA, argue that follow a strategic calculus balances domestic international incentives hold against costs of controlling them. As result, socioeconomic factors make voters easier buy off, such as low average income high inequality, adoption. In contrast, lack significant democracy, so democratization is mainly predicted by regime weakness not conditions. Lastly, find parallel regional diffusion effects: Democratic neighbors transition.