How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant? A non-parametric event history approach with P-splines

摘要: Abstract Governments deciding to use nuclear energy as part of their country׳s mix are faced with long-term planning efforts and huge investments. As power plants constitute one the socially politically most contested technologies, question arises, which time horizons companies well politicians have consider for accomplishment grid-connection individual whole fleets reactors. Unfortunately, there no large-N studies investigating completion such large-scale projects. For first time, we statistically explain duration construction all initiated plant projects so far. Based on International Atomic Energy׳s comprehensive Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) assess impact demographic, economic, political preconditions a country, at same accounting different types reactor technologies. To account non-linear relationships, apply non-parametric survival models P-splines. A main result our analysis is that connection grid increases over years indicating increased societal sensibilities, respect higher security standards, project complexities. The Harrisburg Chernobyl disaster did not induce separate additional delaying effect.