Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services and agriculture.

摘要: I November/December of 1999, leaders from around the world converged on Seattle with goal launching a new round trade negotiations under auspices World Trade Organization (WTO). This has been dubbed “WTO2000” in recognition millennium. In light tremendous growth over last fifty years— much it fueled by multilateral liberalization General Agreement Tariffs and (GATT), WTO’s predecessor, many had high aspirations for this “Millennium Round.” However, meetings failed face vigorous demonstrations labor environmental groups. addition, there marked lack enthusiasm United States. The purpose paper is to provide quantitative assessment potential gains available WTO round, thereby assessing whether greater warranted. Millennium Round aims follow footsteps Uruguay (UR), which was concluded 1994 after prolonged negotiations. implementation period UR case developing countries, as well sensitive sectors, not due be completed until 2004. So, why rush into round? agreement left its wake built-in agenda revisiting more difficult areas previous particular, agriculture services were two where framework developed during UR, but concrete progress toward free open limited. Not surprisingly, these are sectors researchers have also time quantifying liberal trade. created Services (GATS), established rules disciplines policies related market access services. Hoekman (1995) noted, commitments made “are best described bound standstill agreements,” real being deferred future rounds benefits trade, proven elusive economists. valiant attempt quantify protection across relating coverage ratios tariff equivalents, however, comprehensive measures such those provided manufactures yet obtained. frustrated attempts impact sector. present draws set estimates business, finance, construction begin remedy gap (Francois, 1999a). Historically, largely undisciplined GATT (Josling, Tangermann Warley, 1996). One great achievements bringing agricultural discipline. Agriculture led conversion non-tariff import barriers tariffs, together subsidies farm production exports, scheduled phased reductions. represents major reversal trend since 1950s substantial insulation industrial economies (Johnson, 1973; Tyers Anderson, 1992). Thus, marks watershed historical evolution agriculture. While actual cuts likely quite small, Martin Winters argue that stage now steady reductions tariffs WTO2000 subsequent It interesting trade—previously bread butter negotiations—is absent agenda. derived main impetus high-income, “industrialized” economies, focusing attention primary products. Economic Coop-