作者： Pedro André Cerqueira , Rodrigo Martins
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摘要: The study of the business cycle synchronization determinants has traditionally focused on economic variables such as degree openness, nancial integration or industrial structure, disregarding other institutional aspects political and electoral factors. In this paper we purpose to ll in gap test whether several and/or related elections dates ideological strand governments have any e¤ect between countries using a new index for panel data. We conclude that simultaneity same government changes signi cant impact level synchronization. Furthermore, these do not alter signi cantly explanatory role traditional variables, implying factors are complementary rather than substitutes Keywords: Business Cycles Synchronization, Political Cycles, Elections, Panel Data JEL classi cation: C33, E32, H11 1 Introduction There is long-standing interest understanding which can explain why some higher others. Until now di¤erent channels been purposed with mixed results. Some leading candidates are: trade, structure specialization integration. However most far from reaching consensus. Regarding trade channel Frankel Rose (1998), Imbs (2004, 2006), Calderon et al.(2002) Baxter Koupiratsas (2004), provide evidence levels bilateral also their cycles. However, Fidrmuc (2001) does nd correlation cycles convergence arguing result intraindustrial trade. As 2006) nds similar more synchronous, however (2004) hypothesis robust. terms international integration, argues nancially integrated synchronous Kose al.(2003) open developing economies synchronized G7countries. Cerqueira Martins (2007) inverse relationship, showing openness decreases countries. Besides three used degrees success, as: belonging currency union agreement, distance two countries, development, similarity exports imports, budget etc.. previous literature realize aspects, if Other studies those by Clark van Wincoop (2001), Engel(2002), Otto al. (2003) Darvas (2005). following: section gives short insight theories, puts forward how may interact synchronization; following describes data details used. fourth presents discusses results nal one concludes. 2 Theory Cycle Synchronization 1957 seminal work Downs emphasizes idea when think economics should politics consider must forget economics. Therefore strategies politically innocuous nor decisions free concerns. For Nordhaus (1975) Lindbeck (1976) relationship holds because politicians major concern reelection. This literature, known approach (PBC), assumes politicians no policy preferences, so they act opportunistically selecting policies maximize chances wining next election. They create unusual favorable conditions before an election order gain voters support, even though economy, immediately after, falls into recession. alternative Hibbs (1977) parties objectives, behaving, o¢ce, partisan manner. Speci cally, left-wing relatively concerned unemployment ination whereas rightwing especially worried control. model generates e¤ects after elections, while PBC elections. 1980s 1990 s second wave models appeared exploring both theories assumption voters expected utility form expectations rationally. Supported framework where competence asymmetric information key elements, rational (Alesina 1987; Alesina Sachs 1988) opportunistic (Rogo¤ Sibert 1988; Rogo¤ 1990) resulted reduction policymakers ability induce economy. Broad empirical found Roubini (1992), Perotti (1995), (1997) Heckelman (2002), general supportive approach. These main (the "opportunistic" "partisan"), might "opportunistic", economy follow agenda. If inuence favor reelection possibilities, then hold at time will experience boom just putting above trend, recession afterwards, negative deviation trend. doing measured them be moments time. One country would experiencing inuenced going through least smaller expansion. Also "partisan" theory implications try boost growth On hand, right wing concentrate e¤orts ghting short/medium term probably maintain reduce . Countries strands. point out, case depend reacts anti-inationary measures taken.