Determinants of Democratization: Explaining Regime Change in the World, 1972–2006

摘要: What are the determinants of democratization? Do factors that move countries toward democracy also help them refrain from backsliding autocracy? This book attempts to answer these questions through a combination statistical analysis social, economic, and international regime change in 165 around world 1972–2006, case study work on nine episodes democratization occurring Argentina, Bolivia, Hungary, Nepal, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, Turkey, Uruguay. The findings suggest is promoted by long-term structural forces such as economic prosperity, but peaceful popular uprisings institutional setup authoritarian regimes. In short-run, however, elite actors may play key role, particularly importance intra-regime splits. Jan Teorell argues results have important repercussions both for current theories community's effort developing policies promotion.