Sustainability of the Great Plains in an Uncertain Climate

摘要: The potential for social adaptation to climate change l^e Great Plains is examined, and a framework offered sharpening the inquiry into regional agricultural sustainability. future of agriculture in worsening depends on several factors, but key characteristic whether system fundamentally adaptable (able form function markedly under new conditions) or resilient (likely attempt maintain "normar operations via disaster relief other maintenance schemes droughts). In cumulative deterioration, adaptive strategies are likely yield less abrupt dislocation, debate over sustainability even absence demonstrates need concerted, collaborative examination development trends by researchers. Several papers Fourteenth Annual Symposium, "Climate Change Plains," scenarios global its impacts North American Plains. Projected effects range from dire modest depending factors: scenario employed; how linkage between made; postulated sensitivity temperature precipitation change; estimates crop performance increased carbon dioxide; expectations extreme events; assumptions about technical that might lessen exacerbate change. Uncertainty these factors —especially last—impairs our ability project response. Extrapolation impacts, matching simulated with crops context economy, only magnifies unknowns (see, example, Rosenzweig 1985; Williams et al. 1988). abiding question remains unanswered: How will adjust changing climate? This paper examines broad Plains,