作者: Thomas Farole , Jose Guilherme Reis
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摘要: The dramatic expansion in global trade over recent decades has contributed significantly to diversification, growth, and poverty reduction many developing countries. This period of rapid export growth been enabled by two critical structural changes trade: (1) the vertical spatial fragmentation manufacturing into highly integrated “global production networks,” (2) rise services “offshoring.” Both these, turn, were made possible major technological revolutions; they supported multilateral policy reforms broad liberalizations domestic investment environments worldwide. economic crisis came crashing middle this long-running export-led party during 2008 2009. Between last quarter 2007 second 2009, contracted 36 percent. But as recovery started strengthen 2010 (at least until clouds began form Europe), longer-term impacts on environment regarding becoming more apparent. Indeed, addition raising concerns commitment liberalization, also led some serious rethinking conventional wisdom agenda—the most important result which is likelihood that governments will play a much activist role coming years. There are three principal reasons why likely be actively involved industrial First, undone faith markets discredited laissez-faire approaches rely simply liberalization. Instead, local have “rediscovered.” In sense, demand for government go well beyond financial regulation, it affect strategies designed. Second, highlighted importance diversification (of sectors, products, trading partners) reducing risks volatility. era globalization substantial specialization forced respective roles processes growth. seems back fashion—or, at least, talking about is. renewed “activism” agenda need not mean return old-style policies import substitution “picking winners.” may stronger focus competitiveness unlocking constraints private sector–led note discusses from angle, suggests priorities new agenda. P VE TY I