Correlates of long-term land-cover change and protected area performance at priority conservation sites in Africa

摘要: The loss of natural habitats is a major threat to biodiversity, and protected area designation one the standard responses this threat. However, greater understanding drivers habitat circumstances under which areas succeed or fail still needed. We use visual assessment satellite images quantify land-cover change over periods up 30 years in around matched sample unprotected Important Bird Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) Africa. modelled annual survival forests other land covers as function range environmental anthropic predictors plausible drivers. best-supported model indicated that rates cover were highest steeper areas, at higher altitudes, with lower human population densities where was already start period. Survival were, on average, twice those but differences between them varied along different gradients. overall both significantly than types, net benefit protection, terms absolute difference sites, forests. Interaction slope altitude increased, protection offered by topography increasingly nullified additional benefits legislative protection. Furthermore, reduced conversion observation Variation impacts status gradients indicates targets improve world's network, such Aichi Target 11 Convention Biological Diversity, need look beyond simple area-based metrics. Our methods results contribute development protocol for prioritizing places likely have greatest effect.