Using prior data to improve models for reintroduced populations: A case study with North Island Saddlebacks

摘要: Monitoring of reintroductions is essential, but often requires significant resources. If data are available from previous reintroductions, they can be used as priors in a Bayesian framework, potentially reducing the amount needed new reintroduced population before reasonable projections made. We applied this approach to reintroduction North Island saddlebacks (Philesturnus rufusater )t o Bushy Park, New Zealand, an 87-ha forest reserve within fenced exclosure where exotic mammalian predators had been eradicated. released 34 birds June 2006, and conducted intensive monitoring survival fecundity until January 2010. modeled integrated framework whereby we generated concurrent with estimations parameters, meaning estimation uncertainty was propagated into projections. compared 1, 2, 3 years data, using either non-informative (i.e., inferences Park only) or informative 2 saddleback 5-8 collected. The grew rapidly over period (approx. 80% per annum), gave median equilibrium breedingpopulation 255 a95% prediction interval of122-1,238. Projections 2years ofdata lesser mean 93 (50-360). 1 year revealed about success at stage (8.4% simulated populations declined), size could not projected without density effect. Using eliminated whether would grow, allowed made more consistent those full 3-year dataset. discuss implications requirements on decision making. 2013 Wildlife Society.