Changes of regional climate variability in central Europe during the past 250 years

摘要: The paper uses the data potential of very long and homogenized instrumental climate time series in south central Europe for analyzing one feature which is dominant change debate --whether anthropogenic warming causes or goes along with an increase extremes. monthly resolved HISTALP collection provide 58 single three elements, air pressure, temperature precipitation, that start earlier than 1831 extend back to 1760 some cases. Trends long-term low frequent evolution only shortly touched paper. main goal analysis trends changes high interannual interseasonal variability. In other words, it features like extremely hot summers, cold winters, excessively dry wet seasons study aims at. methods used are based on detrended highpass whose variance analyzed discrete 30-year windows moving over entire period. subintervals relies unique number 8 (for precipitation 7) such “normal periods”. second approach same though not fixed but first result clear evidence there has been no variability during past 250 years region. finding similar concentrates recent decades particular interest because they 30 dominating greenhouse gas forcing. We can show also this normal period shows widening PDF (probability density function) compared preceding ones. third window technique. It a centennial oscillating structure all elements For being we have explanation empirical evidence. argue should be artifact any remaining problems, course cyclic effect really well consolidated terms sample length. But at least interesting new subject open scientific discussion further studies dealing circulation effects, memories oceans etc.