Integrating between-host transmission and within-host immunity to analyze the impact of varicella vaccination on zoster
作者： Benson Ogunjimi , Lander Willem , Philippe Beutels , Niel Hens
DOI: 10.7554/ELIFE.07116
关键词:
摘要: Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) causes chickenpox and reactivation of latent VZV herpes zoster (HZ). is subject to the opposing mechanisms declining boosted VZV-specific cellular mediated immunity (CMI). A reduction in exogenous re-exposure 'opportunities' through universal vaccination could therefore lead an increase HZ incidence. We present first individual-based model that integrates within-host data on VZV-CMI between-host transmission simulate This allows estimating currently unknown pivotal biomedical parameters, including duration boosting at 2 years, with a peak threefold fourfold VZV-CMI; weekly probability 5% subclinical having no effect VZV-CMI. 100% effective vaccine given 1 year olds would cause 1.75 times 31 years after implementation. predicted occur mainly younger age groups than assumed.
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