作者: François Cluzel , Bernard Yannou , Dominique Millet , Yann Leroy
DOI: 10.1007/S11367-013-0631-Z
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摘要: Purpose: This paper considers the variabilities that exist in exploitation of a complex industrial system. Our scenario-based LCA model ensures reliability results situations where system life cycle is very uncertain, there substantial lack data and/or time and resources available are limited. It also an effective tool to generate recommendations for clients. Method: Existing quantitative uncertainty methods require huge amount accurate data. These rarely simplified upstream systems. A approach best compromise between acceptable quality required. However, such have not yet been proposed improve environmental knowledge case scenarios. The method here limited number scenarios (3 or 4) defined using Stanford Research Institute (SRI) matrix. Using from past projects, relevant parts listed, expert parameters associated with these quantified. classical process then provides different Results discussion: was applied Alstom Grid AC/DC conversion substation primary aluminium industry. previous study had scope, as poorly understood. Relevant were thus clearly identified: spare program, transport failures, preventive corrective maintenance, updates revampings, lifetime modulation end-of-life. Four considered: case, worst baseline (expected future) highly alternative. show pertinence considering several when predictable, impacts may vary widely one another. sensitivity analysis shows some revampings will need be carefully considered futures studies. Conclusions: consideration three (best case) appears extremely pertinent systems high uncertainties resources. useful good practice towards clients, initiating dialog centred on eco-design continuous improvement.