The diffusion of complex market technologies: From stylized facts to multiple mechanisms

摘要: This paper develops initial steps towards a framework for studying the rich diffusion dynamics of complex market technologies. Dynamics such technologies are conditioned by coevolutionary processes including development installed base, consumer behavior, technologies, complementarities and interlinked supply chains. In this we analyze patterns, failures successes, alternative transportation fuel (ATF) introductions. addition behavioral dynamic model is employed to characterize underlying mechanisms driving their dynamics. We describe as process formation which requires overcoming period fragility. defined during at least one works against further spreading. Overcoming stage harder takes longer with increasing complexity strongly influenced institutional historical contexts. From empirical analysis ATFs learn that fragile state possible, but long periods endured coordinated efforts across multiple types decision makers. During stage, developments highly path dependent. More generally, based capturing fundamental typically cut interorganizational fields - decisions actions from consumers, organizations, various industries policymakers, include important system-physiological aspects. traditional symmetric S-shaped can be seen special case exante usefulness constrained situation low favorable conditions. discuss implications policy strategy.