作者： Knut Samset
DOI:
关键词:
摘要: This thesis looks at uncertainty and risk in projects implemented developing countries. The reason why this may be useful is the large scope of resources used internationally on such projects, perceived high corresponding failure rate these projects. If true, it could a considerable potential for improvements, instance by using as key management parameters applying some experience with from industrial Chapter 1 discusses reasons studies development justified, suggests number issues to addressed studies. 2 highlights absence relevant that guide field, help assert validity findings. Because limited time available, present study uses an extensive approach explore major involved, rather than looking in-depth one particular phenomenon. Therefore, main intention limited: field raise questions providing answers. 3 describes general model distinguish between concepts uncertainty, opportunity. Uncertainty general, value-neutral concept, risk/opportunity signify effects uncertainty. Making distinction necessary allow open opportunity-seeking attitude not only risk-averse attitude. 4 whether are less successful similar countries, based evaluation two types There seems no simple answer question, because success measured differently different can perspectives, stages, absolute or relative terms. 5 explores opinions small sample specialists assistance, which reveal exceptionally strong consensus more affected different. risk-averse, but also uncertainty-averse. At same there tolerance explain modes cooperation donor recipient have been preferred past. 6 presents empirical evidence about cause problems Contrary attitudes presented previous chapter, data suggest very different, share uncertainties predicted early stage project. observations valid, past strategies assistance failed. 7 indicate people overestimate importance socio-cultural, political environmental problems, underestimate economic technological aspects. would imply professional focus international biased towards ‘exotic’ determinants should need shifted. findings chapters improvement planning design if information collected analysed forehand. 8 usefulness appraisal It better used, was what causes were guided experiences elsewhere. A realistic strategy require systematic analysis probability utility associated each ambition level strategy. problem analyses probabilities utilities seldom done 9 difficulties encountered road project design: availability information, judgmental involved translating into utilities, application final design. in-build dynamism self-adjusting abilities social administrative systems, trend assessment use simple, subjective intuitive methods advanced mathematical simulate processes. lies identifying devising systems aggregate information. Under pretext, method adopted most agencies appear appropriate making rough estimated uncertainties, consider their possible effect strategies. 10 over-emphasise under-estimate tactical performance concludes probably combination uncertainty-averseness emphasis strategic adherence plans create rigid nonfulfilable obligations where both side will compromise extent authority agreements undermined. In chapter 11, four cases described order illustrate performance. thorough appraisal, identified well target-oriented implementation process room manoeuvre face conclusion achieved even favourable environment internal factors unsuccessful. On other hand, external favourable. show few critical determining failure. challenge manager apply mix avoid stumbling stones while guiding right direction able respond tactically unforeseen events coach conclusion. intended reduce has failed, medicine hardly solving problems. 12 principle applied responsibility vested those best versed handle risks opportunities. under presently contract strategies, left risk, costs. Different discussed effective transfer implementing party reasonable cost. Finally, introduce control burden agencies, flexibility take project, manage opportunities encountered, bring Small achievements made planned