A methodology to assess the risk of an existing pesticide and potential future pesticides in regulatory decision-making

摘要: Abstract When a pesticide is banned, in an effort to reduce pesticide-related risk the public, substitute pesticide(s) with different risks would likely replace from banned pesticide. This paper provides framework that may be used as regulatory decision support tool studying effect of banning at national level. A analysis prevailing and potential must separately performed compared before ban adopted. In this study, ordinal logistic regression model developed using 21 pesticides 99 watersheds relate distribution surface waters chemical property, watershed use. The predict residue distributions streams for evaluating intermediate drinking water after atrazine. About 80% atrazine will replaced by 2,4-D, bromoxynil, dicamba, nicosulfuron. We found increase these pesticides, but cumulative substitutes actually decreased slightly ban. Atrazine carcinogenic prospect its are non-carcinogenic pose less threat public warrants further attention. study scientific decision-making policy implementation related concern.