Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

摘要: Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose novel probabilistic method quantitatively assess these risks. Our accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, spreading of oil, and seasonally species-specific exposure potential sensitivity oil. It quantifies with explicit uncertainty estimates, enables one compare risks over large geographic areas, produces information on meaningful scale decision-making. demonstrate by assessing short-term oil polar bears, ringed seals, walrus in Kara Sea, western part Northern Sea Route. The differ considerably between species, spatial locations, seasons. results support current aspirations ban heavy fuel but show that we should not underestimate lighter oils either, as can pollute larger areas than heavier ones. also highlight importance spatially season-specific spill assessment environmental variability lack data are major source related impacts.