Ground-Motion Variability and Implementation of a Probabilistic–Deterministic Hazard Method

摘要: Abstract A key step in probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment is the prediction of expected ground motions produced by seismic sources. Most studies use a ground-motion model to perform this estimation. The present study aims at testing simulations analysis instead models. method used empirical Green’s function Kohrs-Sansorny et al. (2005), which takes into account characteristics source, propagation paths, and site effects. recording only one small event needed for simulating larger event. events considered here consist aftershocks from M  6.4 Les Saintes earthquake, struck Guadeloupe archipelago (French Antilles) 2004. variability simulated studied detail sites French Permanent Accelerometric Array. Intrinsic quantified: follow lognormal distributions with standard deviations between 0.05 0.18 (log units) depending on spectral frequency. One input parameter bearing large uncertainties ratio stress drop target Therefore, overall sigma values (and medians) are recomputed, varying 1 15. Sigma increase but remain general lower or equal current simple application hybrid deterministic–probabilistic carried out several estimation hazard posed an occurring rupture zone