Do Planners Get it Right? : The Accuracy of Travel Demand Forecasting in Norway

摘要: This paper deals with the accuracy of travel demand forecasts among Norwegian road projects. We use data collected from tolled roads and toll free roads. The results reveal that while traffic schemes are fairly accurate, have a higher degree inaccuracy generally underestimated. An explanation for observed discrepancy between estimated actual is planners may ignored existence induced standard national growth rates used in transport models has been too low. For roads, an forecast over years scrutinized to provide careful estimates. Our recommendation provided by should constantly be subjected scrutiny independent consultants before being presented decision makers. Aspects need specifically examined include: (1) extent which project lead traffic, (2) accommodate appropriate factors and, (3) made address uncertainties providing confidence intervals