Risk Based Integrity Modeling of Gas Processing Facilities using Bayesian Analysis

摘要: Abstract The deterioration of a gas processing asset has major impact on the continuous operation facility. Risk based integrity modeling renders framework to quantify risks posed by an ageing and hence protect human life, financial investment environment from consequences its likely failure. In risk assessments, structural degradations are modeled using prior probability distributions. With availability inspection data, this can be updated posterior Bayes theorem. This then used estimate likelihood component failure, which would subsequently in quantifying potential first part paper presents for considering various types degradations; namely, corrosion cracking. stochastic degradation models uniform, pitting, erosion developed, along with describing stress corrosion, fatigue, hydrogen induced second methodology develop cracking applicable components present study, several statistical tests were conducted data extracted literature check distributions best describes data. Similarly, distribution been established life process Once underlying confirmed, parameters estimated method maximum likelihood. third development selected priors likelihoods. Metropolis-Hastings algorithm posteriors compared values obtained Laplace approximation method.