Prediction of five-year survival for patients admitted to a department of internal medicine

摘要: Abstract. Eriksen BO, Kristiansen IS, Pape JFr (University Hospital of Tromso and University Tromso, Norway). Prediction five-year survival for patients admitted to a department internal medicine. J Intern Med 2001; 250: 435–440. Objective. The effect many common forms therapy, as medication mild hypertension or hypercholesterolaemia, only reaches clinical significance after years treatment. The meaningful application such therapy presupposes that physicians can, at least some extent, predict the remaining lifetime patients. We investigated whether clinicians from different disciplines were able 5-year medicine. Design. The members two groups, each consisting an internist, surgeon general practitioner, made individual predictions expected discharged written summaries information. Each patient was randomized be assessed by either groups. compared with actual survival. Setting. Department medicine university hospital. Subjects. Patients consecutively during 6-week period. Main outcome measures. Sensitivity, specificity, positive negative predictive values areas under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves 5-y ear six experts. Results. A total 402 included. Five-year 0.63. sensitivity ranged 0.81 0.95, specificity 0.61 0.77, value 0.78 0.87 0.68 0.87. ROC 0.84 0.91. Conclusion. The quality experienced should permit rational use treatments long-term effects.