Effective case/infection ratio of poliomyelitis in vaccinated populations

摘要: Recent polio outbreaks in Syria and Ukraine, isolation of poliovirus from asymptomatic carriers Israel have raised concerns that might endanger Europe. We devised a model to calculate the time needed detect first case should disease be imported into Europe, taking effect vaccine coverage - both inactivated oral vaccines, also considering their differences on length silent transmission account by deriving an 'effective' case/infection ratio is applicable for vaccinated populations. Using data newly developed model, relationship between this derived theoretically numerically determined European countries. This shows unnoticed longer countries with higher proportion IPV-vaccinated individuals among those vaccinated. Assuming borderline (R = 1·1), expected 326 days 512 different countries, number infected 235 1439. Imperfect surveillance further increases these numbers, especially until detection. While does not increase clinical diseases, it can make application traditional outbreak response methods more complicated, others.