Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar
作者： Arnaud Le Menach , Andrew J Tatem , Justin M Cohen , Simon I Hay , Heather Randell
DOI: 10.1038/SREP00093
关键词:
摘要: The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Zanzibar has reached historic lows. Improving control requires quantifying importation rates, identifying high-risk travelers, and assessing onwards transmission.Estimates Zanzibar's rate were calculated through two independent methodologies. First, mobile phone usage data ferry traffic between mainland Tanzania re-analyzed using a model heterogeneous travel risk. Second, dynamic mathematical transmission rates was used.Zanzibar residents traveling to endemic regions estimated contribute 1-15 times more imported cases than infected visitors. be 1.6 incoming infections per 1,000 inhabitants year. Local too low sustain most places.Malaria largely result from subsequent transmission. elimination appears feasible by implementing measures based on detecting controlling onward
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