System Dynamics to Assess the Effectiveness of Restoration Scenarios for the Urmia Lake: A Prey-Predator Approach for the Human- Environment Uncertain Interactions

摘要: Abstract In recent decades, population growth, agricultural development and climate change have caused environmental problems in the world, especially arid semi-arid regions such as Iran. Urmia Lake, one of unique biosphere reserves has suffered from these last 20 years. Although many studies conducted to negative impacts human-induced activities, expansion on lake, few focused providing restoration plans for that. This study uses a system dynamics method modelling restorations scenarios Lake based prey-predator approach. is helpful simplify complicated feedbacks interactions among human-environment. The Monte Carlo simulation used explore effect uncertain parameters lake level. Based results this study, water consumption (as predator) most significant reducing volume (prey). indicated that decreasing area irrigated lands by 40%, improving irrigation efficiency, itself, inter-basin transfer will lead increase level 2.54 m, 2.04 m, 1.19 m 1.19 m, respectively. By applying all suggested scenarios, reach its ecological (1274 MSL) 2023. positive signals coincidence with findings current research bring more hope future lake.