Stepping out of your own shadow: A didactic example of how facing uncertainty can improve decision-making

摘要: Advocates of quantitative uncertainty analysis (QUA) have invested substantial effort in explaining why is a crucial aspect risk and yet devoted much less to how QUA can improve the manager's performance. This paper develops teaching example, using personal decision problem with subtle parallels societal management, show choices made increasing appreciation are superior ones. In hypothetical, five analysts explain same uncertain prospect (whether invest volatile stock issue), attention nuances uncertainty. The path through these different perspectives on demonstrates four general points applicable environmental management: (1) Various point estimates equal claim being “best estimates” differ markedly from each other lead diametrically choices; (2) “conservatism” has both relative absolute meanings, implications for decision-making; (3) inattention fixation “outliers” distribution manager astray; (4) best one that helps discriminate among real options, optimum pathways toward new information, spurs iterative search options may outperform any initial ones offered.