Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate

摘要: There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas are potentially suitable for ticks, models often assessed without due consideration spatial patterns in data may inflate influence predictor variables on distributions. This study null rigorously evaluate role climate and potential change affect future suitability eight European species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment performance Maxent Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based observed against those distributions or data. enabled identification whose demonstrate significant association with variables. Latest generation (AR5) projections were subsequently project under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out exhibited strong climatic signals within their Future intimate varying degrees northward shift these greatest shifts forecasted most extreme RCPs. Despite high measure obtained model Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than models; this result from effects non-climatic factors its distribution. By comparing models, our results allow confidence we identified simply consequence Observed climate-driven seven performed demonstrating vulnerability future.