Numerical predictability experiments of cross-shore sandbar migration

摘要: [1] Surf zone sandbars, common features along the world's sandy coastlines, continuously change their position in response to time-variable offshore wave conditions. Process-based predictions of cross-shore sandbar migration, relevant understanding autonomous and artificially altered evolution beaches, are intrinsically imprecise because uncertainty model equations and, potentially, sensitive dependence on initial bathymetry. However, magnitude resulting predictability limit its dominant source unknown. Here we show that migration time scale years is deterministically forced rather than chaotic, unpredictability results primarily from inadequacy during major events. Because related stochastic nature forcing, not a fixed value but depends timing event. We anticipate detailed experiments understand nearshore underlying first principles will eventually pay off by extending range plausible simulated behavior consequently, increase our ability predict how coasts may respond changing climate.