Blue limits of the Blue Planet: an exploratory analysis of safe operating spaces for human water use under deep uncertainty

摘要: In the Nature article ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Rockstrom et al. (2009) introduce concept of a humanity. A is human activities that will not push planet out ‘Holocene state’ has seen civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. have identified nine earth-system processes associated thresholds which, if crossed, are expected to generate unacceptable environmental change. These include among others climate change, rate biodiversity loss, interference with nitrogen phosphorus cycles, global freshwater use. provide only best guess limits Molden concurs there physical interventions in natural processes. However, these critically depended on local conditions, role management, financial institutional capacity magnifying or ameliorating problems, estimates plagued by uncertainty. case world water system, uncertainties arise conflicting models, regional variations, limitation expansion use through capacity, uncertainty about realization efficiency trans-boundary transfers. This paper aims at investigating more thoroughly To this end, behavior dynamic model balance explored across wide variety uncertainties. We find dynamics level substantially affected this. explained light order magnitude difference between annual runoff.