Climatic control and population dynamics of black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) in the Western Italian Alps

摘要: The analysis of density fluctuations key species is a crucial element for assessing how natural ecosystems respond to climate and environmental change. black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) has experienced constant population decline in the recent decades Italy. We investigated whether meteorological variables dependence affected growth rate Orsiera-Rocciavre Park (Piedmont, Italy) western Alps from 1991–2009. Empirical models showed that rates were negatively by rainfall during brooding–hatching period (early Jun) positively influenced diurnal temperature variation snow-burrowing (Dec). then used most parsimonious derived data project estimates (2010–2050) based on published regional global models. In cases, remained rather stable or weakly decreased future scenarios, both with without inclusion density-dependent effects, but it displayed significant oscillations depending upon vagaries climate. influence regulating dynamics indicated management actions should consider climatic conditions affecting population. particular, conservation breeding wintering habitats be promoted limiting human disturbances reducing hunting quotas years unfavorable weather conditions. © 2014 Wildlife Society.