Predicting tidal heights for extreme environments: From 25 h observations to accurate predictions at Jang Bogo Antarctic Research Station, Ross Sea, Antarctica

摘要: Abstract. Accurate tidal height data for the seas around Antarctica are much needed, given crucial role of these tides in regional and global ocean, marine cryosphere, and climate processes. However, obtaining long-term sea level records traditional predictions is extremely difficult ice-affected coasts. This study evaluates ability a relatively new tidal-species-based approach, complete species modulation with constant corrections (CTSM  +  TCC) method, to accurately predict a temporary observation station Ross Sea, Antarctica, using record from neighbouring reference station characterised by similar regime. Predictions “mixed, mainly diurnal” regime Jang Bogo Antarctic Research Station (JBARS) were made and evaluated based on summertime (2017; 2018 to 2019) short-term (25 h) observations at this station, along prediction data derived year-long observations (2013) “diurnal” regime Cape Roberts (ROBT). Results reveal CTSM   TCC method can produce accurate (to within ∼5  cm root mean square errors) tidal JBARS when (25 h) from periods higher-than-average ranges (i.e. those high lunar declinations). We demonstrate how determine optimal data collection periods Moon's declination and/or modulated amplitude ratio phase lag difference between diurnal semidiurnal species predicted CTSM ROBT station). The importance long-period improve accuracy is also considered and, finally, unique regimes Ross Sea examined paper are situated wider context using Finite Element Solution 2014 (FES2014) model data.