Speciation and extinction drive the appearance of directional range size evolution in phylogenies and the fossil record.

摘要: While the geographic range of a species is fundamental unit macroecology and leading predictor extinction risk, evolutionary dynamics species' ranges remain poorly understood. Based on statistical associations between size age, many studies have claimed support for general models evolution in which area occupied by varies predictably over course its life. Such claims been made using both paleontological data molecular estimates age extant species. However, stochastic model, we show that appearance trends with can arise even when sizes evolved at random through time. This occurs because samples used existing are likely to be biased respect size: example, only those happened large or expanding survive present, while extinct will tend whose ranges, chance, declined We compared relationship arising under our model observed across 1,269 birds mammals 140 Cenozoic marine mollusks. find able generate full spectrum empirical age–area relationships, implying such cannot simply interpreted as evidence directional evolution. Our results therefore challenge theory undergo predictable phases expansion contraction