The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

摘要: Abstract. We present here a dynamical method for modelling temporal and geographical variations in ammonia emissions regional-scale chemistry transport models (CTMs) climate (CCMs). The is based on the meteorology gridded inventories. use to investigate spatiotemporal variability of across part Europe study how these are related year-to-year atmospheric temperature alone. For simplicity we focus emission from storage facility standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals display this source would vary geographically throughout central northern year year. In view future changes, also evaluate potential changes by including projections an ensemble models. results point towards four overall issues. (1) Emissions can easily 20% different locations within country due climate. largest uncertainties seen large countries such as UK, Germany France. (2) Annual at specific cause range 20%. (3) Climate change may increase 0–40% Europe. (4) Gradients existing inventories that between neighbour (e.g. UK France) be reduced using methodology calculating emissions. Acting together factors substantial emission. generally considered among model calculations made CTM CCM Efforts reduce therefore highly relevant. It recommended both CCMs CTMs implement simulating similar way biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOCs) – has been used more than decade CTMs. Finally, penalty should taken into account policy level NEC IPPC directives.