An ensemble modeling framework to study the effects of climate change on the trophic state of shallow reservoirs.

摘要: Abstract Our understanding of the potential impact climatic change on catchment hydrology and aquatic system dynamics has been advanced over past decade, but there are still considerable knowledge gaps with respect to its effects water quality vis-a-vis increasing demands for drinking water. In this study, we developed an integrated hydrological-water (SWAT-YRWQM) model elucidate a changing climate trophic state shallow Yuqiao Reservoir. Using two-step downscaling process, reproduced prevailing meteorological conditions, as well streamflows in three major tributaries study area. A sensitivity analysis exercise showed that nature calibration dataset used, namely range flows (i.e., dry versus wet years) included, can profoundly influence predictive power our modeling framework. scenarios projected minor streamflow rates, variant degree increase riverine total phosphorus (TP) concentrations associated loading rates into reservoir. Consequently, significant rise in-lake TP is near (2016–2030) distant (2031–2050) future compared reference (2006–2015) conditions. Interestingly, ambient levels appear be lower relative future, owing changes magnitude contribution both external internal nutrient sources. also highlights importance reservoir operation practices regulate means mitigating status Reservoir, given diversion low-nutrient from upstream basin significantly reduce (30–40%) concentrations. findings highly relevant on-going debate about implications availability, highlighting adaptation strategies optimize resources management.