Prognostic factors for long-term survival in cirrhotic patients after the first episode of liver decompensation.

摘要: BACKGROUND/AIMS Prognostic studies on cirrhosis are needed, since several attempts to obtain better survival predictors than the empirically derived Child-Pugh's score have failed. METHODS Four hundred and ninety-four consecutive in-patients with at first episode of decompensation (ascites, jaundice, encephalopathy) and/or digestive haemorrhage from ruptured oesophageal varices were followed admission (1983-1989) 1993, studying relationship between 26 prognostic variables survival. Three models constructed using Cox's regression model Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was used compare their predictive ability. RESULTS During follow-up 351 patients died (median cumulative 1.82 years). (explicative variable model), albumin encephalopathy among 5 Child-Pugh (second 3 biochemical indexes 7 significant univariate (third model) correlated The area under ROC curve did not significantly differ that for other 2 models. CONCLUSIONS is still best simplest index assessing prognosis liver cirrhosis.